Refinery margins, crude prices, and investments: Breaking bad-er?

This ICF International white paper examines the pattern of refinery crude runs and margins and the potential implications of global and domestic product demands on those margins as well as on the demand and price for crude oil during the first quarter U.S. refinery turnaround period. Key discussion topics include:

• Record production and crude runs
• Weakening of gross margins
• Lack of demand
• Worsening near-term supply outlook
• Investment and sector impacts

The oil industry is reeling from the dramatic decline in crude oil prices and the potential impact on U.S., Canadian, and global crude production. Much less discussion surrounds the steady declines in U.S. and global refinery margins that have occurred coincident with the crude price decline and that appear to have led the crude market down.