Q&A: What to expect at COP29?
After the hottest summer ever recorded in the Northern Hemisphere, hundreds of global leaders and negotiators will be gathering in Baku, Azerbaijan, for the annual Conference of the Parties (COP) on climate change known as COP29.
Together, they're expected to assess global efforts to advance the Paris Agreement's commitment to limit global warming to 1.5 degrees while addressing a wide range of climate-linked issues.
To get a better understanding of what we can expect out of COP29, I spoke with several ICF experts across climate, energy, biodiversity, human capital, tourism, finance, and technology to share their ideas.
Q: There’s been a lot of talk about the role—positive and negative—for AI around climate. What do you expect to hear about AI and other technology at COP29?
Jess Borrevik, chief technology officer for ICF's energy, environment, and infrastructure group:
Trusted, actionable, data-driven insights are foundational to building cooperative momentum around climate change at COP29. AI, as a disruptive technology, is reshaping policy decisions by tackling complex issues—from documents and imagery to sensors and social media to energy infrastructure siting and climate and carbon forecasting. As overall demand for AI increases—creating an era of significant electric demand growth—so will discussions on improving the quality and quantity of data inputs.
At COP29, the growing influence of AI in informing policy will be evident. The conference is likely to highlight the need for priorities around safely, equitably, and ethically building trust in these technologies to ensure continued impact in the years ahead.
Q: What do you expect to hear about infrastructure—particularly food, water, and agriculture—at COP29?
Peter Schultz, vice president of climate change and resilience:
Historically, the approach to increasing infrastructure resilience has been to look at one piece of infrastructure at a time and to ensure that critical assets are protected. This approach could work fabulously well in a world in which infrastructure and society are not interconnected.
The reality, though, is that we live in a highly connected world. So, even if investments are made to protect a school or an industrial center from flooding, those investments may have little value unless the access roads are protected, electricity continues to be supplied, and potable water continues to be available during and after the flooding event. In other words, the resilience of the whole system needs to be considered not just individual assets.
This is why a systems approach to climate-resilient planning was developed and released on October 10, with ICF support, by the Millennium Challenge Corporation (MCC), the U.S. Agency for International Development (USAID), the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (USACE), and the U.S. International Development Finance Corporation (DFC). These agencies have taken the breakthrough step to considering “systemic risks and opportunities to achieve resilient infrastructure at scale in partner countries, where consistent with programmatic strategies and requirements, to inform investment decisions.” By taking this holistic approach, these agencies aim to demonstrably: improve the resilience of infrastructure services; reduce economic losses due to climate change and related stressors; and protect multiple assets at once.
I expect a systems approach to climate-resilient planning will be a key topic discussed at COP29.
Q: What do you hope to hear at COP29 around the challenges of climate change to tourism?
Nikos Gkolfinopoulos, head of tourism at ICF:
During COP29, I anticipate we’ll hear more about how climate change is impacting destinations around the world and how the rising temperatures impact the natural resources that are the backbone of many tourist destinations and experiences.
I also expect to hear about the readiness efforts of the tourism industry. Decision-makers are not only working to mitigate and adapt to climate change, but they are working collaboratively to address its impacts. For example, how are they sharing best practices that have worked in their parts of the world to create sustainable tourism destinations? Lastly, I expect to hear how tourists themselves are changing or are expected to change their travelling patterns and destination choices.
Q: What’s the most important statement you expect to hear at COP29 around the future of climate finance?
Jerome Kisielewicz, consulting director, green transition:
Climate finance will be one of the main topics on the negotiators’ table during COP29. To move beyond pledges, concrete solutions will have to be identified to not only agree on a new climate finance goal but also ensure this goal is followed by real finance flows. To achieve this objective, policymakers should consider reforms to the international financial architecture to make it more equitable, just, and responsive to climate change and biodiversity loss.
Q: What actions do you hope come out of COP29 around biodiversity/nature-based solutions?
Jerome Kisielewicz, consulting director, green transition:
Following the call made by more than 140 scientists from nearly 50 countries, I hope the upcoming UN Biodiversity COP16 and UN Climate COP29 conferences result in a stronger integration between the biodiversity and climate change agendas. These two crises are deeply interconnected and cannot be addressed in isolation. A more integrated approach is required to reinforce solutions that have the potential to address both crises and lead to the transformation we deeply need to progress towards a net-zero, nature positive, and socially just economy.
Q: What do you hope to hear at COP29 around human capital or human-centered solutions to climate change?
Beth Heinen, director of human capital:
At COP29, I hope to hear in-depth discussions on how human capital principles can be leveraged to foster more sustainable business operations. As an industrial/organizational psychologist, I believe that embedding sustainability into the core of business processes can lead to significant improvements. By focusing on business process improvement, culture change, and thoughtful change management, organizations can be better equipped to transition to greener practices. This includes promoting green jobs and ensuring that employees are continuously developing the necessary skills to adapt to new environmental standards. The transformation to a sustainable future will not only involve technological advancements but also require a profound shift in organizational culture and mindset.
Furthermore, I am eager to learn about policies and frameworks that support the creation of jobs in a greener economy and the evolving importance of technical skills in the workforce. The transition to a climate-resilient economy will inevitably alter the way certain jobs are performed and create new roles that did not previously exist. This shift underscores the necessity of equipping the workforce with skills pertinent to sustainability, such as leadership in environmental initiatives, effective communication, and employee engagement.
Prioritizing these human-centered solutions will help ensure that the transition is inclusive and equitable, harnessing the potential of individuals and teams to drive collective environmental efforts. By addressing these interconnected issues of human development, youth, health, and education, we can create a holistic approach to combating climate change that benefits both the planet and society.
Q: What role do you expect clean energy/the decarbonization of the energy sector to have in COP29 discussions?
Orestes Anastasia, director of international clean energy and climate change:
Energy remains one of the most important topics at this year’s COP as it remains a primary sector generating greenhouse gas emissions, and demand for energy has grown dramatically with corresponding emissions. According to the International Energy Agency (IEA), CO2 emissions from energy have increased by 2.3 times in the past 50 years. That said, investments in renewable energy, energy efficiency, and zero-emission fuels like hydrogen continue to offer some of the best opportunities to reduce future GHG emissions and reach net-zero emissions by mid-century.
In advanced economies, clean energy investments, mainly in solar and wind, during the past two decades have brought energy sector CO2 emissions down to their levels of 50 years ago, and demand for coal down to its 1900 levels. Global clean energy investment has risen to an all-time high of $2 trillion as of 2024.
Nevertheless, this increased investment alone is not enough to meet Paris Agreement targets, and will need to double according to a 2022 IEA report. As underscored in the latest global stocktake, the UNFCCC called for tripling renewable energy capacity and doubling the global average annual rate of energy efficiency globally by 2030.
Several proposed initiatives to be launched at COP29 to ramp up investment efforts include the Climate Finance Action Fund (CFAF) (Annex 3), the Green Energy Zones and Corridors (Annex 5) initiative, the COP29 Global Energy Storage and Grids Pledge, and the COP29 Hydrogen Declaration.
